Oil market shrugs at imminent Iran tanker insurance ban

Reuters - In less than two weeks, Iran's largest oil buyers to lose access to the London-based insurance market, which protects 95 percent of the world's oil tanker shipments against damage or catastrophic collisions.
Barring an unexpected last-minute deal to relax the sanctions of the European Union, the Protection and Compensation (P & I Clubs) can convince the Iranian vessels carrying crude 1 July unexpected but ultimately a critical side effect of the EU sanctions to punish Iran for its nuclear program.
When the extreme scenario, exports to OPEC's second largest - already limited to a separate U.S. sanctions and the EU ban on imports - can stop by next month, foreign oil companies can not afford to risk billions of dollars of debts of an uninsured event.
Such an outcome seems unlikely. Japan, which now buys about a fifth of Iran's exports of legislators is expected to approve an unprecedented government guarantees to assure shipments later this month.
But no other country has not announced similar arrangements, and the buyers in South Korea and India say they have to stop loading new cargo in July without a resolution.
Although the risks are, however, oil markets appear blase: Since April, the price of Brent crude oil prices have plummeted more than 20 percent of trade under $ 100 a barrel for the first time since early 2011, and the straw poll by Reuters, none of the five analysts provided forecasts for Iran's exports are expected to more than a modest dip in sales in July and the rest of the year.
"The insurance business can affect the volume of exports over the targets, thereby reducing the expected Iran's exports, but the time it takes the market participants to find ways to deal with sanctions and export can grow," Seth Kleinman at Citi said.
Currently, traders are betting that a reduction in demand due to the debt crisis of almost unprecedented in Saudi oil production and boom in North American production is more than sufficient to compensate for the expected drop of 1 million barrels per day (BPD), Iran's exports last year.
Group of Eight countries have also made it clear they would release emergency oil reserves quickly if the supply is at risk.
In practice, the market sentiment on Iran turned from one extreme to another. Fears earlier this year, Israel's imminent military attack on Iran has been replaced by what some analysts warn, is a dangerous complacency.
"Our view is that much of the lower Iran's exports have already been priced in," says Hans van Cleef, energy economist at ABN AMRO, who refused to provide a forecast. "The price effect July 1, would be very limited."
Opportunities for a wider aperture resolution of high-level nuclear talks and the growing risks of instability resulting from the turmoil in Syria could be underestimated.
"I think it is much more volatile than the market recognizes," Barclays analyst Helima Croft said.
One more marine risks have emerged just in recent days: the big European rating agencies that verify the safety and environmental standards in the world's oceangoing vessels - a prerequisite for docking up to the ports - say, to stop providing certificates to the Iranian Supreme shipping companies.
Graphic Iran oil: click http://link.reuters.com/qef68s
JAPAN INSURANCE
Citi estimates of exports to fall 200 000 barrels per day compared to May, and then further to around 1.25 million barrels per day during the remainder of the year - about half of what Iran's exports last year, before the more severe the consequences.
On average, analysts see Iran's exports to slip on a 216 000 barrels per day in July, and shortly after. This requires a total loss of exports amounted to nearly 1.5 million barrels per day level, the Barclays analysts warned could provide a "substantial upside down prices," especially in the summer demand.
P & I block initially looked for unanticipated side effect of the sanctions, which are more direct import of Iranian crude oil and a host of other measures designed to convince Iran to stop its nuclear program objectives.
West suspects Iran trying to make nuclear weapons, but Tehran that its nuclear program is for electricity generation.
However, insurance quickly become a key issue has wider implications. Although the U.S. sanctions have succeeded in convincing most of Asian countries to cut Iran's purchases of one tenth or more, that P & I coverage threatens to stop exports - a development that is not even in Washington seems to want.
The main importing countries were exerting pressure on the EU to relax the ban or delay the sanctions, but the EU is determined: "We have a firm position on the oil starts to ban first July," Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger said last week.
Most are also looking for support for a sovereign, but few results outside of Japan.
Earlier this year, China's ship-owners in Beijing there was coverage, but there is no evidence that such measures will be coming. The Indian official said last week that New Delhi was the difficulty to solve the problem. Industry sources said earlier that the country's largely state refiners would be forced to stop the importation without a solution.
"Oil traders see the Iranian buyers to create functional substitutes for the EU maritime insurance through sovereign guarantees," said Mark Dubowitz director of non-profit group Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which calls for strict sanctions against Iran.
The navy?
NITC, the Islamic Republic's largest private tanker operators have sought to reassure customers that it can maintain a broadcasting moving $ 1 billion in insurance on their own fleet, mostly privately owned, Kish P & I
If you use a whole, the NITC's fleet of 39 vessels would be theoretically enough to carry a maximum of about 62 million barrels of oil, the information on their website was. Assuming a 35 day round trip to China, Navy could theoretically deliver 1.8 million barrels a day more than Iran's current exports.
But brokers say up to three quarters of its 25 supertankers may already be in use at sea to store surplus production, while the smaller vessels would be bad for long-distance transport. This is more difficult to maintain current export using only the NITC vessels.
Iran to release these vessels to sail to China or elsewhere, but this would force Tehran to close in oil wells against the tide - it has been reluctant to do so far.
In the end, some analysts question is not so much the direct effects of sanctions than the extent to which some countries may still work around them.
Nic Brown, Natixis said China - the only major importer is not secured an exemption in U.S. sanctions - you can buy more than 500,000 barrels of crude a day in July.
"We suspect that Chinese importers have negotiated favorable terms for taking more oil from Iran," he said.
(Reporting by Jonathan Leff in New York and Naveen Arul and Nallur Sethuraman in Bangalore, Additional reporting by Timothy Gardner in Washington, editing by Dale Hudson and Sofina Mirza-Reid)

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